A warm front and a small wave of low pressure will lift northward today and tonight, approaching the Southern New England south coast Friday morning. The combination of the approaching frontal zone and its accompanying wave of low pressure will bring an increasing threat for wet weather very late tonight and into part of Friday.
An incoming surge of warmth and moisture in the atmosphere means it is likely that downpours and lightning will be passing near the area during Friday morning. However, it appears we may end up right on the very northern edge of the system’s deeper moisture and the associated mechanisms needed to produce meaningful rainfall. Thus, we will be right on the periphery of steadier and heavier rain and thunderstorms. Whether we are clipped by this activity – and pick up some big soaking downpours – or end up with just a period of light rain showers and sprinkles will only be a matter of miles.
Right now, odds for downpours and thunder are highest right along the south coast of the Cape and out over the Islands, with decreasing chances as one moves north (consequently, a place like Provincetown has a better chance of dodging the wet weather than a spot like Chatham).
Either way, cloudy skies and some passing showers are anticipated Friday morning before things start to improve during the latter half of the day.