Arctic air is firmly in place over the area and is going nowhere anytime soon. In fact, even colder weather is likely as we head into New Year’s Day and there are strong signals that another surge of bitterly cold air will invade the region later in the week ahead.
With the dry, frigid air enveloping much of the eastern two-thirds of the country, storminess and widespread precipitation is rather limited across the country for the time being. While numerous weather impulses are moving across the nation, embedded up in the jet stream flow, their attendant surface weather systems are relatively weak and moisture-starved.
One such “storm” system is going to slide by the area today and tonight, as a small low pressure area spreads a shield of mostly light snow through the Mid-Atlantic and parts of the Northeast and New England.
It still appears as though a weak low pressure area will brush the Cape with the northern edge of it’s moisture shield later today and into tonight…with the bulk of the steady and heavier precipitation remaining just south of the region. However with such frigid air in place, it won’t take much moisture to yield a quick inch or two of fluffy light snow and that’s the expected outcome for this evening.
It’s important to note that the Cape will quite literally mark the extreme northern edge of the steady precipitation. Some pieces of model guidance keep this northern edge just south of the area while others allow it to briefly overspread the area.
Consequently, the difference between some flurries or a dusting of snow versus a few inches will come down to just a few miles difference in the placement of this precipitation shield.