Snowfall Forecast

Low pressure will develop east of the Mid-Atlantic today and tonight and ride northeastward from there, passing a good distance south and east of Cape Cod on Tuesday as another formidable low pressure center. This storm is destined to bring us a round of heavy snow and high winds during the day on Tuesday.

Here is the updated snowfall forecast for the area.

The main change was to include all of the Cape in the 8-12 inch range and to add some higher amounts to Nantucket.

It is worth noting that multiple pieces of model guidance suggest that these forecast totals could be conservative. That said, I still see enough reasons to be leery of widespread 1 to 2 foot totals and have accordingly not pushed the forecast totals higher. Whether most locales end up in the 10, 11, 12 inch range or in the 16, 17, 18 inch range is the main question at this point.

I’m leaning lower but do recognize that there is a higher end potential here. Some of the classic signals are there for a big one on the Cape on some pieces of guidance but likewise it’s not a “perfect” set-up. Additionally, I’m personally not a fan of set-ups in which model guidance leans one way…then starts to lean in the opposite direction…only to begin to correct back to the earlier solution as the event draws near.

Regardless of all of that, it’s going to snow.

Anticipate a tough travel day tomorrow as snow will fall heavily at times through a good chunk of the day and strong northeast and then north winds will lead to substantial blowing and drifting snow.

Some scattered power outages are a fair bet around the area as the snow – at least through the first quarter to half of the event – will be on the wetter/heavier side and will add some weight to power lines, trees and limbs. That, plus wind gusts in excess of 45 mph – and peaking near 60 mph – will cause some pockets of tree and limb damage which will lead to some power-related issues at times.

Conditions should slowly improve later Tuesday afternoon…with things tapering down during the evening.

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