Milder south and southwest winds have taken over and pushed a surge of warm and moist air northward into the region.
The incoming warmer and more humid air has resulted in a deck of low clouds, fog and mist over the area this morning. However, as the morning progresses and the sun rises higher into the sky, the low overcast will start to thin and mix out and we should see some partial sunshine develop toward midday. Increasing amounts of sunshine are anticipated for the afternoon hours with temperatures climbing through the 60s…possibly passing 70F in a few spots on the Upper Cape away from the immediate shoreline. There will be a bit of a humid feel to the air through the day.
With a busy southwest wind expected to continue, it’s possible that cooler temperatures and some fog and low clouds linger right along the south-side beaches and especially out toward Chatham and Harwichport.
As we move through the afternoon hours, focus will turn to a line of downpours and thunderstorms expected to fire off over eastern New York State. As this feature develops, organizes, strengthens and marches eastward into Southern New England it will spark numerous strong and likely severe thunderstorms over interior locations, with damaging wind gusts a big concern for those locations. The Storm Prediction Center has placed parts of Eastern New York State and Western New England under an “Enhanced Risk” for severe weather…with fairly high confidence for damaging wind and even modest probabilities for a tornado.
Short-range and high resolution model guidance is in good agreement that this squall line will march through Southern New England later this afternoon and reach southern and eastern New England this evening, shifting offshore tonight…and gradually weakening as it does so.
While a stiff southerly flow of air off the ocean will result in a far more stable marine environment locally (thus limiting the amount of fuel available to maintain the thunderstorm strength), atmospheric conditions aloft are favorable for some of this activity to survive the journey to the coast. Consequently, while severe weather is far less likely in Southeastern Massachusetts and especially here on the Cape, a period of downpours and some gusty thunderstorms are certainly possible for a few hours this evening.
Monitor the radar through the day.