Low pressure taking shape over the southeastern part of the United States will lift quickly northeastward over the next 24 hours, exiting the North Carolina coast Monday morning and passing well south of Nantucket Monday evening. This system should deliver us our first widespread solid accumulating snowfall of the 2021-2022 winter season here on the Cape.
I emphasize should as there will be a very sharp northern edge to the precipitation shield and its entirely possible that the bulk of the moisture – and thus snowfall – remains JUST south of the area. Multiple pieces of guidance suggest that dry air will win out and we’ll be left with some ocean effect snow showers and flurries.
That said, there’s enough model and meteorological support to suggest that we will be scraped by some steadier snow for a time Monday afternoon and will manage a few hours of accumulating snow. Higher odds for steadier/heavier snow exist out over the islands – particularly out on Nantucket where there is a much better shot at seeing plowable snowfall…perhaps as much as a half foot.
In general, this event doesn’t look like a big deal with a couple / few inches of snow possible across the Cape – with the best shot at those totals over the Lower Cape. Further north, toward Truro and Provincetown, dry air will limit the ability of snow to develop and we may see very little.